A model to determine the lake nutrient standards for drinking water sources in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Ecoregion, China  

作　　者：Danfeng Ji Beidou Xi Jing Su Shouliang Huo Li He Hongliang Liu Queping Yang 

机构地区：[1]School of Environmental, Beijing Normal University [2]State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Science [3]North China Electric Power University

出　　处：《Journal of Environmental Sciences》2013年第9期1773-1783,共11页环境科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Mega-projects of Science Research for Water Environment Improvement (No. 2009ZX07106-001-005-01);the National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 71103166)

摘　　要：Lake eutrophication （LE） has become an increasingly severe environmental problem recently. However, there has been no nutrient standard established for LE control in many developing countries such as China. This study proposes a structural equation model to assist in the establishment of a lake nutrient standard for drinking water sources in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Ecoregion （Yungui Ecoregion）, China. The modeling results indicate that the most predictive indicator for designated use-attainment is total phosphorus （TP） （total effect =-0.43）, and chlorophyll a （Chl-a） is recommended as the second important indicator （total effect =-0.41）. The model is further used for estimating the probability of use-attainment associated with lake water as a drinking water source and various levels of candidate criteria （based on the reference conditions and the current environmental quality standards for surface water）. It is found that these candidate criteria cannot satisfy the designated 100% use-attainment. To achieve the short-term target （85% attainment of the designated use）, TP and Chl-a values ought to be less than 0.02 mg/L and 1.4 μg/L, respectively. When used as a long-term target （90% or greater attainment of the designated use）, the TP and Chl-a values are suggested to be less than 0.018 mg/L and 1 μg/L, respectively.Lake eutrophication （LE） has become an increasingly severe environmental problem recently. However, there has been no nutrient standard established for LE control in many developing countries such as China. This study proposes a structural equation model to assist in the establishment of a lake nutrient standard for drinking water sources in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Ecoregion （Yungui Ecoregion）, China. The modeling results indicate that the most predictive indicator for designated use-attainment is total phosphorus （TP） （total effect =-0.43）, and chlorophyll a （Chl-a） is recommended as the second important indicator （total effect =-0.41）. The model is further used for estimating the probability of use-attainment associated with lake water as a drinking water source and various levels of candidate criteria （based on the reference conditions and the current environmental quality standards for surface water）. It is found that these candidate criteria cannot satisfy the designated 100% use-attainment. To achieve the short-term target （85% attainment of the designated use）, TP and Chl-a values ought to be less than 0.02 mg/L and 1.4 μg/L, respectively. When used as a long-term target （90% or greater attainment of the designated use）, the TP and Chl-a values are suggested to be less than 0.018 mg/L and 1 μg/L, respectively.

关 键 词：nutrient standard EUTROPHICATION structural equation model expert elicitation 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程] O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计]