煤炭价格波动与电力供应紧张——基于月度数据的经验证据  

Fluctuations in Coal Prices and Electricity Shortage——Evidence based on Monthly Data

作　　者：王建林[1] 赵佳佳[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《财经论丛》2013年第5期106-111,共6页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金资助项目(11YJC790177);国家社科基金资助项目(11BFX056);浙江省社科重点研究基地资助项目(12JDGZ01Z);辽宁省社科规划基金资助项目(L12AJY001)

摘　　要：近十年来电力供应紧张一直困扰中国经济,大量文献检验了电力供应与经济增长的关系,而忽视了煤炭价格这一因素。基于1996年10月到2012年5月的月度数据,我们使用了包含煤炭价格的多变量方法进行分析。研究结果显示,Johansen协整检验发现电力供应、煤炭价格和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系;拔靴Granger因果检验发现,电力供应单向引导经济增长,煤炭价格单向引起电力供应,煤炭价格与经济增长之间存在双向的Granger因果联系。据此,我们建议完善煤电价格联动机制,密切关注煤炭价格波动和打破电力市场行政垄断等。Coal price could have an effect on electricity supply in China, which does not attract most researchers＇attention. We analyze the relationship between power supply, coal price and economic growth. Empirical test is applied using the data from October 1996 to May 2012. The result suggests that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship be- tween power supply, coal price and economic growth. Power shortage is a departure from the long-run equilibrium relation- ship. Using bootstrap granger causality testing approach we find a unidirectional Granger causality running from power supply to economic growth, a unidirectional Granger causality running from coal price to power supply and a bidirectional Granger causality between coal price and economic growth. Policy solutions are also discussed in the paper, such as perfection of coal- electricity price link system, monitoring coal price fluctuation and breakin~ the administrative mononolv in electricity rnarkot

关 键 词：电力供应 煤炭价格 经济增长 煤电价格联动 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]