非常规突发事件危害性评估和态势监测模型  

Harmfulness Assessment and Trend Monitoring Model in Unconventional Emergency

作　　者：胡俊[1,2] 陆晴漪[3] 陈磊[4] 王云华[1,5] 陈世鸿[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学计算机学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉市政务服务中心管理办公室,湖北武汉430012 [3]武汉理工大学艺术与设计学院,湖北武汉430070 [4]武汉大学国家多媒体软件工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430072 [5]武汉理工大学计算机科学与技术学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（理学版）》2013年第4期381-387,共7页Journal of Wuhan University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(3101003)

摘　　要：在非常规突发事件应急管理过程中,实时把握事件危害性的变化状况和演化态势无疑有助于事件的决策与处置.本文提出了一种可计算的事件态势监测模型ESMM.该模型依据事件爆发和处置/恢复过程中的实时情景,抽取与事件危害性相关的信息,通过实时评估事件处置前后的危害性变化,以及与决策目标间的差异判断事件的演化态势.实验表明ESMM是实时评估事件危害性变化和态势监测的可操作性模型.In the process of responding to the unconventional emergency,to monitor the real-time harmfulness of the event and its evolution can undoubtedly enhance government＇s capacity of decision-making and management.Due to this notion,a situation evolution monitoring model ESMM which can be calculated is put forward in the paper.Based on the real-time scenario of the outbreaking,managing and recovering of the event,ESMM extracts the information related to harmfulness and makes a real-time assessment of the harmfulness change before and after the treatment,thus estimating the trend evolution in terms of the difference between the decision-making goals and the actuality.The experimental results obtained in the paper shows that ESMM is an operational model to evaluate the harmfulness and its evolution of the event.

关 键 词：非常规突发事件 情景信息池 事件危害性 态势监测 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]