云南省HIV感染流行趋势分析和预测  

Analysis and Prediction on the Trends of HIV Infection Epidemic in Yunnan Province

作　　者：程何荷[1] 张家鹏[1] 潘颂锋 贾曼红[1] 张勇[1] 马艳玲[1] 毕秀琼 张小波[1] 安静[1] 张光彩[1] 杨朝军 梁跃波[1] 王文新[1] 李徽[1] 余慧芬[1] 李劲光[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省卫生防疫站,昆明市650022

出　　处：《中国性病艾滋病防治》2000年第5期275-260,共1页Chinese Journal of Std & Aids Prevention and Control

摘　　要：目的 对云南省HIV感染流行趋势进行分析和预测.方法 采用1992～1999年哨点监测结果和历年预测的实际HIV感染数,进行流行趋势描述和相关回归分析.结果 静脉吸毒为云南省HIV流行优势型,从HIV感染引入,由边境地区蔓延至全省约花了12年的时间,1999年云南省IDUs平均HIV流行率为27.8%,预测2005年可达到40%;HIV的性传播:1990年性病门诊哨点中男性HIV流行率为1.8%,卖淫人群为2.2%,嫖客为1.1%,经性传播HIV感染率逐年上升,预测男性性病病人在2004年和卖淫人群在2003年流行率将会超过5%;云南省孕妇平均HIV感染率为0.2%,估计近2年云南省每年约有1500名孕妇和5O0个新生儿感染HIV.云南省经静脉吸毒的HIV传播在1995年和1996年出现的流行地区扩大和增长率峰年及HIV经性传播的1996年增长率峰年表明云南省1995年、1996年前为HIV传入和局限流行期,以后进入快速扩散增长期,预测云南省2005年成人流行率可能会达0.78%.结论 哨点监测数据可以反映云南省HIV感染流行主流,可估计实际HIV感染者数和预测流行趋势.对于年趋严重的HIV感染疫情,必须迅速采取有效的预防措施来降低流行率.Objective To analyze and predict the trends of HIV epidemic in Yunnan Province. Methods The results of sentinel surveillance from 1992 to 1999 and the actual HIV infected presons estimated each year were used to describe the trends of HIV epidemic and to do the correlation and regression analysis. Results Intravenous drug use is a predominant patten of HIV epidemic in Yunnamn. It took about 12 years to spread to the whole province since HIV was introducted and was first found in western border areas. The average prevalence of HIV among IDUs in Yunnan was 27.8% in 1999. Pre-dictively it will be 40% in 2005. The HIV prevalence in male STD patients was 1.8%, 2.2% in underground prostitutes and 1.1% in their clients in 1999. Predictively the prevalence will be over 5 % in 2004 for male STDs and in 2003 for prostitutes. The average incidence was 0.2% in pregnant women. It was estimated that there were about 1500 pregnant wormen and 500 newborns living with HIV each year recently. Expanding of areas reported HIV infection and peak year of increasing rate of HIV in 1995 and 1996 through intravenous drug use, and peak year of HIV increasing rate in 1996 through sexual transmission showed that the period of introduction of HIV and limited epidemic were before 1995 and 1996, then the period of spreading and increasing rapidly began. It was predicted that HIV prevalence will be 0.78% among adults in 2005 in Yunnan. Conclusion The data of sentinel surveillance can reflect the main trend of HIV epidemic in Yunnan Province and can estimate the actual HIV infected persons and predict the trends. The effective measures must be taken to reduce the HIV prevalence as soon as possible for the HIV infections in Yunnan are becoming more and more serious year by year.

关 键 词：HIV 增长率峰年 预测 艾滋病 流行病学 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]