贸易平衡对于经济发展与国家库存行为的中介影响——来自OECD国家的实证研究  

The Mediating Effect of Trade Balance on the Relationship between Economic Development and National Inventory Behavior——Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries

作　　者：李一[1,2,3] 孙林岩[1,2,3] 冯泰文[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]过程控制与效率工程教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710049 [3]机械制造系统工程国家重点实验室,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2013年第3期27-34,共8页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70701029);国家社科基金资助项目(08XJY016)

摘　　要：经济的发展促进了全球贸易的活跃度,经济活动和贸易活动的顺利开展离不开库存缓存作用的发挥,而库存的存在是以产品的生产和交易为基础的。本研究利用24个主要OECD国家近30年的数据,采用随机效应的面板数据分析模型,研究了经济发展对库存投资的影响,以及贸易平衡的中介效应。结果发现经济发展以及贸易平衡都对库存投资有显著的影响,其中经济发展正向促进了库存投资,而贸易平衡则对库存投资有反向的作用。同时,经济发展对库存的影响,部分地通过影响贸易平衡来实现,进一步分析发现在这个部分中介效应中起主要作用的是纯产品的贸易平衡,而不是服务贸易。Major OECD （Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development） countries in the world are achieving rapid economic growth, and foreign trade activities among those countries are increasingly frequent. Economic development results in vigorousglobal trade. However, inventory＇s buffer memory effect is needed to ensure the smooth development of econoniic and trade activities. In addition, inventory is stored based on the production and transaction of goods. Inventory exists not only in individual firm, s but also in the cooperative supply chain, all industry sectors and countries. Inventory is an indispensable part of operation even though it occupies a huge amount of funding and resources. The national inventory investment is fluctuant and greatly depends on the change of economic growth rate and the deepening of foreign trade. Studying the relationship among economic growth, trade balance and the behavior of national inventory is beneficial for making macro-economic policy. By using data from 24 OECD countries during 1979 and 2008 and applying the panel data model with random effect, this study examines the impact of economic development on inventory investment and the mediating role of trade balance. In addition, this paper tries to explore which part of trade （ goods trade, service trade or both of them） has the mediating effect, and broadens relative empirical research achievement about national inventory. After reviewing relatively empirical literature on inventory, we find that most of foreign researches about inventory mainly focus on three levels-national level, industrial level and company level-about influencing factors of inventory. However, these studies primarily study appearance impression, and do not consider the influence mechanism of factor and internal relations among factors. In view of these shortages presented, this paper proposes a conceptual model in which trade moderates the relationship between economic growth and inventory investment, and further divides trade into goods tra

关 键 词：国家库存 经济发展 贸易平衡 中介效应 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]