北京市石景山区流感监测预警效果分析  

Effectiveness analysis of influenza surveillance for early warning in Shi-jing-shan district

作　　者：白云[1] 郭舫茹[1] 任丽君[1] 赵伟[1] 吴劲[1] 何月莹[1] 朱倩[1] 白晓潇[1] 李敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京北京市石景山区疾病预防控制中心,100043

出　　处：《国际病毒学杂志》2013年第4期175-180,共6页International Journal of Virology

摘　　要：目的建立基于流感监测数据的北京市石景山区流感监测预警体系，评价三种方法应用于流感预警的效果。方法利用2007～2012年石景山区流感样病例百分比（ILI％）日监测数据，分别应用历史极限法、指数加权移动平均法、累积和法三种方法进行预警分析。结果2011年9月1日-2012年8月31日，5家监测医院共报告流感样病例26651例，流感样病例百分比为2．63％，流感病毒分离率为4．35％。流感监测数据预警分析结果显示，历史极限法在2月末开始连续出现22个预警信号，至5月末结束。指数加权移动平均法和累积和法均在2012年元旦开始显示预警信号并预警持续1个月，两种方法提示预警信号部分重叠。指数加权移动平均法预警信号出现7次，累积和法c1、c2和c3预警信号分别出现5次、3次和9次。结论综合应用指数加权移动平均法和累积和法对石景山区流感监测数据进行分析，有助于高效、准确地对流感高峰起始进行预警。Objective To build the early warning system of Shi-jing-shan district based on influenza surveillance data and evaluate the effect on early warning of influenza by three methods. Methods We used daily monitoring data of percentage of influenza-like illness （ ILI% ） , from 2007 to 2012. Three methodolo- gies（historical limitmethod, exponentially weighted moving averageand cumulative sum） were adapted to make the early warning analysis. Results From September 1, 2011 to August 31, 2012, a total of 26 651 ILI cases were reported in the 5 hospitals, the average 1LI percentage was 2. 63% of the outpatient visit, and the influenza virus isolated rate was 4. 35%. With respect to the ILI surveillance data analysis, 22 warning signals were given from the late of February to the end of May by historical limit method. At the same time, the first signal appeared on New Year＇s Day 2012 according to exponentially weighted moving average method and cumulative sum method, the signals lasted one month, and the signals partially overlapped according both methods. The signals appeared seven times by exponentially weighted moving average method. C1, C2 and C3 appeared five times, three times, and nine times respectively. Conclusions It could give the pre- diction and early warning for the onset of influenza peak efficiently and precisely, using the exponentially weighted moving average method and cumulative sum method to analyze the influenza surveillance data of Shi-jing-shan district synthetically.

关 键 词：流感 监测 预警 统计 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]