基于着色Petri网的情景演化应急预案流程建模  

Modeling of Emergency Plan Business Process under Scenario Evolution Based on Colored Petri Net

作　　者：黄卫东[1,2] 童喆[1] 刘寅卯[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学产业信息安全与应急管理研究中心,江苏南京210003 [2]南京大学工程管理学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《信息与控制》2013年第4期492-498,505,共8页Information and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171117;70871061);江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK2010524);中国博士后基金资助项目(20100471289);第七批次江苏省六大人才高峰项目

摘　　要：针对突发事件所处环境的动态特性,结合应急处置与事件演化的适应性,提出一种基于着色Petri网的情景演化应急预案流程建模方法.将着色Petri网引入应急预案的流程建模之中,设计了情景演化下应急处置流程的CPN(colored Petri net)模型;运用随机Petri网的思想将时间概念引入到应急预案的动态建模之中,通过同构的马尔可夫链进行业务流程的性能分析,并设计了库所繁忙概率、变迁利用率和变迁标记流速等一组性能指标;以特大火灾应急预案为例,在验证了模型的有效性的基础上,分析信息资源聚集瓶颈以及关键业务单元;结合分析结果,提出了应急预案流程模型的优化思路,在模型优化的过程中考虑情景要素的影响,实现应急资源的动态配置.According to the dynamic characteristics of the environment for emergency event, and combined with the adaptability of emergency disposal and evolution, a modeling method of emergency plan business process under scenario evolution based on colored Petri net is proposed. The colored Petri net is introduced into the process modeling, and a CPN （colored Petri net） model which can dispose the emergency process under scenario evolution is designed. By using the thought of stochastic Petri net, the concept of time is taken into consideration in the process of dynamic modeling. The performance of business process is analyzed based on isomorphic Markov chain, and a set of performance indexes are designed, such as the busy probability of place, the utilization ratio of transition and the marker velocity of transition. Finally, taking a conflagration emergency plan as an example, the effectiveness of the method is verified, and the bottleneck of information resources and the key business unit are analyzed. Combined with the analysis result, an idea is put forward to optimize the emergency plan process model. The effects of scene elements are considered in the process of optimization model, and the emergency resource dynamic allocation is realized.

关 键 词：着色PETRI网 情景演化 应急预案 流程建模 性能分析 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]