北碚区降水时空分布及变化趋势分析  

On Analysis of Temporal-Spatial Distribution and Change Trend of Precipitation in Beibei

作　　者：万敏 李家启 张爽 彭超 李强 朱建国 张玉蓉 

机构地区：[1]重庆市北碚区气象局,重庆400700 [2]重庆市沙坪坝区气象局,重庆400030

出　　处：《西南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第7期122-128,共7页Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：重庆市气象局青年基金项目资助(QNJJ201122)

摘　　要：利用北碚区地面气象观测站1961-2010年降水观测资料,运用线性趋势、小波分析和M-K突变检验等方法对北碚区近50年来的降水的时空分布及变化的主要特征进行分析.结果表明,年降水量呈增加趋势,1970年是近50年降水量变化的显著突变点.季节降水变化最显著特点为夏季增加最明显,而秋季为减少趋势;降水的日变化特征是降水主要集中在夜间,大的降水主要出现在后半夜.小波分析得出年降水量变化存在准13～15年的年代际周期和4～6年的短周期,且近年来周期有变短趋势.从空间分布来看,全区年降水量呈现西北部最高、东北部次之,西南部最低的分布状况.年降水与当年7月份亚洲区极涡面积存在最大负相关,而与头年1月份太平洋极涡面积存在最大正相关.Based on the precipitation observation data of meteorological station from 1961--2010, the char- acteristics of precipitation change in Beibei for recent 50 years have been studied, by means of the linear- trend estimate, Morlet wavelet analysis and the M-Kmutation. The results show that annual average pre cipitation has an increasing tendency during 50 years, and the precipitation broke out in 1970. The most notable features of seasonal precipitation change is increased obviously in summer, but decreased in au tumn. Daily variation characteristics of precipitation are mainly at night, and large precipitation occurs mainly after midnight. The wavelet analysis found that the annual precipitation has the periodic fluctua- tions of 10 and 5 years, and the recent years has witnessed shorter cycle trend. Spatial distribution of an- nual precipitation shows that the region has the highest annual precipitation in northwest, followed by northeast, southwest minimum distribution. Annual precipitation and the July Asian polar vortex area have the largest negative correlation, and it has the largest positive correlation between the last January polar vortex areas

关 键 词：降水 线性趋势系数 小波分析 M-K突变 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]