我国森林可持续利用的生态经济弹性分析  

Analysis of Forest Sustainable Utilization in China Using a Ecological Economy Elasticity Model

作　　者：刘林[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国计量学院经济与管理学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《林业科学》2013年第8期132-139,共8页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：中国计量学院哲学社会科学一般项目(SLY201202);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71103168);浙江省哲社重点研究基地"产业发展政策研究中心";浙江省人文社科基地"管理科学与工程"资助

摘　　要：以我国31个省、市、自治区为样本区域,利用1999—2010年的森林蓄积量和林业总产值数据,采用改进的生态经济弹性模型,对不同尺度森林生态经济弹性进行测度和分析,以反映森林资源供给与经济需求之间的协调关系。结果表明:1)全国尺度上,我国森林生态经济弹性均值为0.255,处于生态滞后状态,且在研究区间内上升趋势不明显;2)区域尺度上,森林生态经济弹性均值的区域排列为东部(1.271)>中部(-0.277)>西部(-0.394);3)省域尺度上,天津(2.195)、辽宁(1.621)、广西(1.579)、广东(1.472)、福建(1.471)、西藏(1.344)、河北(1.337)、浙江(1.264)、海南(1.217)、北京(1.165)10个省份森林生态经济弹性较高;山东(0.983)和江苏(0.969)处在生态滞后临界值附近;四川(0.409)和云南(0.337)则步入了生态滞后状态;黑龙江(0.046)、陕西(0.016)、上海(0.003)和内蒙古(0.002)几乎处于无弹性状态;其余13个省份均处于重度生态滞后状态,宁夏(-2.488)和青海(-2.714)最严重。In this paper,the author estimated and analyzed the changing process of elasticity of forest ecological economy by applying forest stock volume and total output value of forestry data,which represent forest resource supply and economic demand,in China from 1999 to 2010 with an elastic model,to reveal the synergic relationship between the supply of forest resources and the demand of economy.The results show that 1） on the nationwide scale,the average elasticity value of ecological economy is 0.255,indicating that the rate of forest stock rise is less than the rate of forest economic growth,and suggesting ecological lagging behind.There is no increasing trend during this research interval.2）on the regional scale,the elasticity value of forest ecological economy is 1.271 in the east region,-0.277 in the west region,and-0.394 in the middle region of China.3） on the provincial scale,the elasticity value of ecological economy is 2.195 for Tianjin,1.621 for Liaoning,1.579 for Guangxi,1.472 for Guangdong,1.471 for Fujian,1.344 for Tibet,1.337 for Hebei,1.264 for Zhejiang,1.217 for Hainan,and 1.165 for Beijing,respectively.The above provinces have relatively higher elasticity.Shandong and Jiangsu have 0.984 and 0.969 of the elasticity value,respectively,and they are near the critical value of ecological lagging.The following provinces,including Sichuan,0.409,and Yunnan,0.337,are in mild lagged state.Heilongjiang,0.046,Shaanxi,0.016,Shanghai,0.003 and Inner Mongolia,0.002 are in no elastic state.The left 13 provinces are in serious lagged state,especially Ningxia,-2.488 and Qinghai,-2.714.

关 键 词：森林 可持续利用 生态经济弹性 

分 类 号：F307.2[经济管理—产业经济]