镇江市火险天气指数预报服务系统  

The Service System of Fire Weather Index Forecast at Zhenjiang City

作　　者：吴增福 田永飞 李正伟 沈兴建 王亚君 刘梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省镇江市气象局,212003 [2]南京气象学院

出　　处：《气象》2000年第12期43-46,共4页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：利用镇江市 7年中 1 44 3次火灾和气象资料 ,分析火灾与气象因子的关系 ,定量划分火险天气指数 ;运用 T1 0 6格点场资料 ,建立预报火险天气指数的逐步回归方程 ,编制了具有一定特色的镇江市火险天气指数预报服务系统。两个月的实际应用表明 ,其准确率达 83.6 %。The relationship of fire and weather factors was analysed by using of meteorological data and 1443 fire events at Zhenjiang city of Jiangsu province in seven years.Fire weather type was divided and fire weather index was given.Then, the stepwise regression equation of index forecast of fire weather at Zhenjiang was established by using of T106 products.The forecast accuracy of the operational experiment in two months is 83 6%.The service system of fire weather Index Forecast was developed.

关 键 词：城市 火险天气指数 T106产品 指数预报系统 火灾 

分 类 号：TU998.12[建筑科学—市政工程] P457.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]