自忆谱模式制作中期天气预报的试验  

NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION WITH SELF-MEMORIAL SPECTRAL MODEL

作　　者：曹鸿兴[1] 谷湘潜[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2000年第4期455-466,共12页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金!(项目 4 96752 62 );中国气象科学研究院博士启动基金资助

摘　　要：基于大气自忆性观点 ,引进记忆函数 ,可构造一个差分 -积分方程 ;称之为自忆性方程 ;给出了此方程的球谐表达式及其离散计算公式 .以 T42 L9谱模式为动力核 ,建立了一个全球自忆 T42谱模式 (SMT42 ) .用实际资料进行了逐日至 1 5天积分试验计算 ,表明对于 50 0 h Pa中期数值天气预报 ,SMT42比 T42的均方根误差小得多 ,同时 SMT42对距平相关系数也有所提高 。Applying a memory concept to numerical weather prediction and introducing a memorial function, an appropriate difference integral equation which is called a self memorization one has been formulated. Meanwhile the spherical harmonic representation of the equation is drieved too. Setting up and solving the equation establish a new approach of numerical weather prediction. Using T42L9 spectral model as a dynamic kernel, a global self memorial T42 model (SMT42) was setup, with which several cases of 15 day integration experiments were carried out. Compared with T42, SMT42 is much better in 500 hPa forecast in daily up to 15 days, whose root mean square error (RMSE) is significantly reduced.

关 键 词：中期天气预报 数值谱模式 大气自忆性原理 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]