金融危机对广东入境旅游经济及市场的影响  

The Impact of Financial Crisis to the Inbound Tourism Economy and Market of Guangdong

作　　者：杜泳[1] 李睿[1] 韩旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学地球科学系,杭州310027

出　　处：《科技通报》2013年第9期222-227,共6页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学资金资助项目(项目编号:30571524)

摘　　要：2008年爆发的全球金融危机，使全球经济遭受了巨大的冲击。入境旅游一定程度上是世界经济的晴雨表。本文应用ARMA模型、游客集中度系数、亲景度和市场竞争态等定量方法，评估了金融危机对广东省入境旅游经济的总体影响，分析了危机对其入境旅游客源市场结构变化情况。结果表明，金融危机使广东入境游客量和旅游外汇收入比预期正常值分别降低了6％～15％和0．7％-1．1％，入境游客量和减少幅度超过旅游外汇收入减少幅度；危机使入境旅游游客集中度明显提高，增加了广东对少数几个入境客源地的依赖程度；在金融危机背景下，广东省在全国对人境客源的竞争力一定程度上受到了其他旅游目的地的挤压。最后，有针对性地提出了广东拓展入境客源市场的思路和策略。In 2008, the outbreak of the international financial crisis has made the global economy suffered massive negative effects. To some extent, the inbound tourism is a barometer of the world economy. This paper evaluated the total impact of international financial crisis on inbound tourism economy of Guangdong Province, and analyzed the inbound tourist market structure changes by the ARMA model, the tourist concentration coefficient, the preference scale, the competition state and other quantitative methods. The results showed that, the financial crisis has made the inbound tourists and foreign exchange earnings from tourism respectively decreased by 6~15% and 0.7~1.1% than the expected normal values; The crisis has caused the inbound tourism tourists concentration degree improving obviously, and increased the dependency of Guangdong to several inbound tourists; Under the background of financial crisis, the inbound tourism competitiveness of Guangdong Province was squeezed by other tourist destinations of our country. Finally, this paper proposed the development thought and strategy of inbound tourist market of Guangdong.

关 键 词：金融危机 入境旅游 ARMA模型 游客集中度 亲景度 广东 

分 类 号：X37[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F59[经济管理—旅游管理]