基于VC-DRSA的危化品公路运输风险不确定因素分析  

Uncertain Factors Analysis of Hazardous Chemicals Road Transportation Risk Based on VC-DRSA

作　　者：李淑霞[1] 闫晓青[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

出　　处：《东华大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第4期509-513,共5页Journal of Donghua University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71001039);教育部人文社会科学青年基金资助项目(12YJC630120);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(WN1122001)

摘　　要：在深入探讨危化品在公路运输过程中不确定影响因素的基础上,对危化品公路运输事故历史数据进行了整理,提出采用变一致性优势关系粗糙集理论(VC-DRSA)定量分析危化品运输环境风险不确定因素重要度,进而揭示风险因素与风险之间的因果关系及其不可约简规则,为缓解和预防危化品公路运输风险提供了一定的理论依据.Firstly, the uncertain factors affecting the degree of road transportation risk are analyzed. Then a variable consistency dominance-based rough set approach （VC-DRSA） for evaluating the importance of causal factors is presented based on collected historical accident data of hazardous chemicals road transportation. Meanwhile, the irreducible rules for predicting transportation risk are obtained. A case study is also given, which shows that the casual relation between uncertain factors and magnitude of risk can be revealed clearly. The merits and limitation of the proposed method are pointed out at last.

关 键 词：危化品 风险分析 不确定因素 变一致性优势关系粗糙集理论（VC—DRSA） 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学] X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]