湖北省农业生产资料价格与农民收入相互关系的实证分析  

Empirical Study on the Price of Agricultural Means of Production and Rural Residents′Income in Hubei Province

作　　者：马比双[1] 余家凤[1] 孔令成[2] 

机构地区：[1]长江大学经济学院,湖北荆州434023 [2]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《贵州农业科学》2013年第9期210-213,217,共5页Guizhou Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：湖北省教育厅人文社科课题"农民专业合作社规范化研究--以湖北省为例"(2012Y029);湖北省教育厅科研课题"湖北省农民专业合作社规范化研究"阶段性研究成果(Q20121209)

摘　　要：在向量自回归模型的基础之上,运用格兰杰因果关系检验、协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法对湖北省农业生产资料价格与农民收入的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:从短期来看,湖北省农业生产资料价格会随着农民收入提高而下降;但从长期来看,湖北省农业生产资料价格必定会随着农民收入的提高而提高,并且农业生产资料价格上涨的幅度大于农民收入增长的幅度。为了进一步稳定农业生产资料价格,保证农民收入增长的持续性和稳定性,必须创新农业生产经营体制机制,切实履行强农惠农政策,加大惠农力度,积极完善农产品流通体系,深化改革重要农资产品的储备制度。This paper empirically analyzed the relationship between price of agricultural production means and rural residents＇ income in Hubei province through Granger causality test, and co-integration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method based on vector auto-regression model （VAR） were applied. Results showed that in short-term, price of agricultural production means could decrease along with rural residents＂ income increase, but in long-term, price of agricultural production means could increase along with the income increase, and magnitude of price increase for agricultural production means was higher than growth rate of rural residents＇income. In order to stabilize the price of agricultural production means, ensure rural residents＇ income growth sustainability and stability, innovation of agricultural production and operation systems and mechanisms should he carried out, policies for strengthen agriculture and benefiting farmers should be performed and invigorated, meanwhile, the circulation system of agricultural products should be actively improved, also the reform of important inputs reserve systems should be deepened.

关 键 词：农业生产资料价格 农民收入 向量自回归模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F304.8[经济管理—产业经济]