游程理论与二维Copula函数的耦合建模及应用  

Modeling of Coupled Theory of Runs and 2-D Copula Functions and its Application

作　　者：彭高辉[1] 宋宝[1] 马建琴[1] 夏军[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州450011 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《人民黄河》2013年第9期8-11,20,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071025);水利部"948"项目(201047);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201210078060)

摘　　要：以黄河流域9省58个气象站1955—2010年月降水资料为例，利用游程理论统计每4 a的干旱月数、游程数字特征及游程长度为1~10个月的重现期并利用系统聚类法分别对游程数字特征及重现期进行聚类分析，根据聚类结果，应用二维Copula函数重点构造河南与山东、河南与山西降水量的月尺度联合概率分布，利用优选出的二维Clayton Copula函数计算联合概率、联合重现期和不同组合下的条件概率。结果表明：9省在1955—2010年间干旱月数基本保持不变；内蒙古、山东、山西、宁夏、河南比其他省份在较长时间内更易发生大旱，且连旱时间更长；河南与山东、河南与山西的干旱遭遇关联性较强。Based on the monthly precipitation data of 58 meteorological stations in 9 provinces es of the Yellow River Basin during 1955 -2010, this paper applied theory of runs to calculate the number of dry months every four years, numerical characteristics of runs and length of the reappearing period from one to ten months, and used system clustering to analyze the numerical characteristics of runs and reappearing period. According to the clustering results, this paper adopted two-dimensional Copula function to construct the joint probability distributions of monthly precipitation of Henan Province and Shandong Province, Henan Province and Shanxi Province respectively, and used the optimized two-dimenslonal Clayton Copula to calculate joint probability, joint reappearing period and the conditional probability under different combinations. The results show that the num- ber of dry months in the 9 provinces basically remains unchanged in 1955 -2010; provinces （or autonomous regions） of Inner Mongolia, Shan- dong, Shanxi, Ningxia and Henan are more likely to occur drought over a long time than other provinces, and the months of continuous droughl arc more than other provinces; the drought events occurred in the provinces of Henan and Shandong, Henan and Shanxi have strong relevance.

关 键 词：游程理论 COPULA函数 干旱 降水 黄河流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]