基于DPSIR概念框架的水生态安全动态评价  

Dynamic Evaluation of Water Ecological Security Based on DPSIR Concept Framework

作　　者：陈华伟[1,2] 黄继文[1,2] 张欣[1,2] 傅世东 

机构地区：[1]山东省水利科学研究院,山东济南250014 [2]山东省水资源与水环境重点实验室,山东济南250014

出　　处：《人民黄河》2013年第9期34-37,45,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：中国科学院对外合作重点项目(GJHZ1016);水利部公益性行业科研专项(200801026)

摘　　要：基于DPSIR概念,综合考虑水生态安全的不确定性因素和系统的动态变化,建立了水生态安全评价的DPSIR框架及相应指标体系,将多元联系数与马尔科夫链随机模型进行耦合,构建了水生态安全动态评价模型。运用该模型对东营市1993—2011年共19个年份的水生态安全状况进行了评价,并分析了安全等级的时序演进趋势。结果表明:东营市水生态安全整体处于相对不安全或不安全等级,未来水生态安全稳态等级仍为相对不安全。Based on the DPSIR concept, this paper synthesized the uncertain factors of water ecological security and dynamics of the system, estab- lished DPSIR framework of water ecological security evaluation and the corresponding indicator system, and integrated the multivariate connection number with Markov chain to build a dynamic evaluation model. The proposed model was applied to evaluate the water ecological security grade of Dongying City from 1993 to 2011 and forecast its time series evolution trend. The results indicate that the overall water ecological security of the city is in the levels of relative security or insecurity and the level in the future is still relatively insecurity.

关 键 词：DPSIR 多元联系数 马尔科夫链 动态评价模型 水生态安全 东营市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]