R/S在径流时间序列周期分析中的应用  

The Application of R /S to the Periodic Analysis of Runoff Time Series

作　　者：杨玲霞[1] 孙东永[2] 张莉[3] 

机构地区：[1]陕西广播电视大学工程管理系,陕西西安710119 [2]长安大学环境科学与工程学院,陕西西安710054 [3]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京100083

出　　处：《人民黄河》2013年第9期51-52,91,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51009008)

摘　　要：河川径流时间序列波动周期的确定较为困难。在R/S长程记忆性分析的基础上，将R/S分析方法引入到径流时间序列周期的分析中，其基本原理是时间序列的Hurst指数在出现不可逆转的减小趋势之前有一个相对稳定的最大值区间，据此可有效地分析时间序列的周期。乌江上游洪家渡、下游构皮滩水文站年径流时间序列周期分析表明：洪家渡站年径流序列具有15~18 a的周期，构皮滩站年径流序列具有 15 a左右的周期。It＇ s difficult to confirm the fluctuate cycle of runoff time series. Based on the analysis of long-term memory of R/S, the R/S analysis method was introduced into the analysis of runoff time series cycle. Its basic principle was that the Hurst index of time series had a relatively stable maximum interval before decreasing trend irreversible, which could effectively analyze the cycle of time series, The cycle analysis of annual runoff time series of Hangjiadu Station on the upper reaches and Goupitan Station on the downstream of Wujiang River shows that Hongjiadu Station annum runoff series have 15 - 18 a cycle and Goupitan Station annual runoff series have a cycle of about 15 a.

关 键 词：径流时间序列 R S HURST指数 周期 乌江 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P338[天文地球—水文科学]