由地球自转的年际变化预测El Nino事件  

USING THE VARIATION OF THE EARTH'S ROTATION TO PREDICTE EL NINO

作　　者：韩延本[1] 李志安[1] 赵娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院北京天文台,中国科学院国家天文观测中心,北京100012

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2000年第3期112-114,共3页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目!(199730 11);中国科学院基金赞助

摘　　要：分析了地球自转、大气角动量和太阳黑子相对数的年际变化与ElNino的关系 .结果表明 :当地球自转速率的年际变化由快向慢转变 ,即表示年际变化的ΔLOD1 的数值由极小逐渐增加并转变为正值约半年后 ,ElNino的初期开始出现 .此期间大气角动量的年际变化也呈现从小到大的过程 .通过分析新的地球自转变化测值 ,预测 2 0 0 1年将出现ElNino .The relationship between variations in time scale of years of the Earth's rotation ( ΔLOD 1 ), the atmospheric angular momentum, sunspot number and El Nino is studied in this paper. The result showed that the beginning of El Nino generally appeared after the progress of variation from slow dawn to fast of the Earth rotation, that is the variation of ΔLOD 1 is from minimum to maximum, by about half year and more. The variation of the atmospheric angular momentum is obvious in the progress. Analyzed the data, the authors think that a new El Nino will possibly appear in 2001.

关 键 词：地球自转 大气角动量 厄尔尼诺事件 年际变化 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学] P183.3