征信系统视野下的“十二五”中国信贷预测及对策研究  

Research on Credit Loan Prediction in China's 12th Five-year Plan and Countermeasures from the Perspective of Credit Reference System

作　　者：黄余送[1,2] 史小梅[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行征信中心,北京100031 [2]中国人民银行金融研究所,北京100033 [3]北京通成达水务建设有限公司,北京100456

出　　处：《征信》2013年第9期9-13,共5页Credit Reference

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(10CJY077)

摘　　要：征信系统是金融体系建设的重要基础设施之一,而征信系统的发展不仅与政策扶持息息相关,也取决于信贷市场对征信系统的业务需求。利用指数平滑和斯本瑟移动平均等两种分析方法,对中国"十二五"期间信贷余额总量进行了预测,并在此基础上对中国征信系统提出了四条转型发展建议。Credit reference system is one of the important infrastructures for the construction of financial system, and the development of credit reference system is not only closely related to the supporting policies, but also depends on the demand for credit information system from credit loan market. By using exponential smoothing and Spence moving averages analytic methods, prediction is made on China＇ s total outstanding credit loans during the period of the 12th Five-year Plan, and four proposals are put forward for China＇ s credit reference system transforming and development.

关 键 词：征信系统 信贷预测 转型发展 

分 类 号：F832.2[经济管理—金融学]