深圳市土地利用碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线协整分析  

Co-integration Analysis-Based Environmental Kuznets Curve of Carbon Emission from Land Use in Shenzhen City

作　　者：刘伟玲[1,2] 张林波[1,2] 龚斌[1,2] 王丽霞[1,2] 张继平[1,2] 张丽丽[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护区域生态过程与功能评估重点实验室,北京100012 [2]中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012 [3]西南林业大学,昆明650224

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2013年第4期172-178,2,共7页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：环保公益性行业科研专项项目(201109030;2009467020)

摘　　要：中国城市化和工业化进程极为剧烈,由此带来的土地利用变化与能源消费碳排放效应将是影响我国实现碳减排目标的关键因素,研究土地利用和能源消费碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线,能预判碳排放拐点出现的时间,揭示经济发展与碳排放之间的动态关系。以深圳市为典型案例,利用1979—2010年的土地利用变化和能源消费碳排放数据,借助CKC简化模型分别构建了深圳市土地利用和能源消费碳排放总量、人均碳排放量的CKC模型,基于单位根和协整Engle-Granger检验对深圳市土地利用和能源消费碳排放CKC曲线进行了探析。结果表明:深圳市经济增长分别与土地利用碳排放和能源消费碳排放量成正相关,并存在长期稳定的均衡关系。GDP分别和土地利用碳排放、能源消费碳排放存在单向因果关系,深圳市存在人均土地利用和人均能源消费CKC,到达拐点的人均GDP分别为28 708.60元和59 604.89元。研究结果有利于了解未来碳排放态势,从而为相应的减排政策的制定提供依据。With extremely intensifying urbanization and industrialization in China,the carbon emission effect caused by land use changes and energy consumption becomes an essential factor influencing China′s target of carbon emission reduction.The study of Carbon Emissions Environmental Kuznets Curve（CKC）can not only predict the occurrence of inflection-point for carbon emission,but also reveal the dynamic relationship between economic development and carbon emission.Takimg Shenzhen city as a typical case,the land-use and energy consumption carbon emission data of 1979—2010years was utilized and the simplified CKC model was taken advantage of to establish the CKC models of the total and per capita carbon emission of land use change and energy consumption in Shenzhen city;and then,based on the unit root and Co-integration Engle-Granger Test methods,the CKC of the total carbon emission in Shenzhen is analyzed.It is shown from above results that there are positive relationships in Shenzhen city between economic growth and land use carbon emissions,and energy consumption carbon emissions,which are presented as long-term stable equilibrium relationships.GDP has one-way causal relationship respectively with carbon emissions from land use and energy consumption.There are the per capita land use CKC and the per capita energy consumption CKC existing in Shenzhen City with inflection points of the per capita GDP of RMB 28 708.60and RMB 59 604.89,respectively.The above results shall be conducive to understanding the future trend of carbon emission,which can provide a basis for making appropriate emission reduction policies.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 碳排放 碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线 协整分析 深圳市 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]