中美农产品贸易对中国农业发展影响的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Sino-US Agricultural Trade to China's Agricultural Development

作　　者：杜培珍[1,2] 谢思娜[2] 刘合光[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2013年第9期61-64,共4页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部项目(农科财预函[2012]95)

摘　　要：根据1993—2011年中美两国农产品贸易总额和中国农业总产值的数据,采用协整分析、Granger因果关系检验和误差修正模型对中美农产品贸易与中国农业发展的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,中美农产品贸易与中国农业发展存在长期的均衡关系;中美农产品贸易总额是中国农业发展的Granger原因;从短期来看,当短期波动偏离长期均衡时,误差修正项以0.371的力度作反向修正,将非均衡状态恢复到均衡状态。Based on the data of total values of China＇s agricultural output and Sino-US agricultural trade in 1993 -2011, the relationship between Sino-US analyzed empirically using cointegration analysis, agricultural trade and China＇s agricultural development was Granger causality test and error correction model. The results showed that the equilibrium relationship between Sino-US agricultural trade and China＇ s agricultural development existed in the long term; Sino-US agricultural trade value was the Granger cause of China＇s agricultural development. In the short term, when the short-term fluctuations deviated from the long-term equilibrium, it was amended back to equilibrium with the error correction term at 0. 371.

关 键 词：中美农产品贸易 中国农业发展 协整分析 GRANGER因果关系检验 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F320F313.7