经济冲击对中国经常项目影响的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of Economic Shocks on the Impact of China's Current Account

作　　者：李文[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学商务信息学院,201620

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2013年第9期48-57,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：上海市高校"085工程"项目;上海市教育委员会科研创新项目(11YS205);国家自然科学基金项目(70801018)的资助

摘　　要：本文基于跨期最优消费理论,研究中国经常项目对各种经济冲击的响应。首先在最优消费模型的基础上给出了经常项目对产出冲击的脉冲响应函数表达式,实证结果发现,中国产出数据服从一阶差分后的一阶自回归模型;四个变量中经常项目余额、国内生产总值、政府支出、投资都是一阶单整序列,且存在长期协整关系;利用脉冲响应函数发现中国经常项目余额对来自产出的标准差新息冲击的反应呈现出负效应。Based on the intertemporal optimal consumption theory, we study the impact of a variety of economic shocks on China＇s current account. First of all, we put forward impulse response functions of the current account to production shocks. The empirical results show that the current account balance, gross domestic products, government spending and investment are I （1） series. Using the unit root test and the Johansen co -integration test, we know that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among four series. Through impulse response function, this paper analyzes the impact of the gross domestic products, government spending and investment on the current account balance.

关 键 词：跨期均衡 消费 经济冲击 经常项目 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]