中亚五国咸海流域水资源策略的博弈分析  

Game analysis of water resources strategy among the Central Asia Countries around the Aral Sea Basin

作　　者：姚海娇[1,2] 周宏飞[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所阜康荒漠生态站,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2013年第4期764-771,共8页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家重大基础研究计划项目(973计划)课题(2009CB825102);国家国际科技合作课题(2010DFA92720-05)

摘　　要：中亚五国在咸海流域水资源分配与利用上的矛盾,随着社会经济发展对水资源需求的增加而变得日益突出,探寻各国对咸海流域水资源利用的策略,对中亚地区水资源合理分配、可持续发展和地区安全至关重要。运用博弈论方法,分析中亚各国对咸海流域水资源的分配诉求及水政策,梳理各国在咸海流域水资源问题上的合作历程,探讨中亚各国在水资源问题上采取不同策略的利弊得失。认为目前咸海流域利益得不到协调使中亚各国深陷水资源分配困局,"协调博弈"是当前令咸海流域水资源问题走出"囚徒困境"的首选,将会获得最佳报酬。各国相互信任、转变观念,以利益分配取代水量分配,实现真正意义上的国家间合作,才能从根本上解决流域水资源分配与利用的困局。With socioeconomic development and population growth, under the drive of enormous water demand, the water resource allocation contradictions between Central Asia countries become increasingly prominent, which have seriously hindered the social economic development and regional social stability, or even seriously affect the rela- tions among the Central Asia countries. Different water resources utilization strategy will influence the water resourc- es allocation in Central Asia countries around the Aral Sea Basin. It is vital for the regional sustainable development and social security. In this paper the method of game analysis was used to analyze the water resource allocation prob- lems in Aral Sea Basin. Based on analyzing the water resources situation, a systematic cooperation course between Central Asia countries is presented, different water demands and water policies are described and analyzed in detail and a game analysis is done to analyze the countries＇ pros and cons under different strategies. It is considered that Central Asia countries get into water resource allocation predicament because of the uncoordinated benefit relation- ship, they face ＂Prisoners Dilemma＂ now. Since ＂Coordination Game＂ could make each country get the best reward, it should be the first choice to make them out of the ＂Prisoners Dilemma＂. At last points out that in order to realize the true sense of the cooperation between countries and solve the water resources allocation and utilization issues fundamentally, governments should enhance mutual confidence and change their ideas, let the distribution of benefit instead the distribution of water quantity. This paper introduced a new research method, game analysis, analyzed the water resources issue in a view of benefit distribution, which would provide a new idea for the solve of water resource issue in Central Asia.

关 键 词：中亚 咸海流域 水资源分配 博弈分析 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]