中国农业资本深化对农业经济影响的实证研究  

Empirical Research on The Influence of Agricultural Capital Deepening on Chinese Agriculture Economic

作　　者：罗浩轩[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学政治学院农村发展研究中心,成都610065

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2013年第9期4-14,110,共11页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"加强农业基础地位和确保国家粮食安全战略研究"(编号:08AJY034);四川大学国家人文社科重大攻关项目培育计划"增强国家粮食安全综合保障能力研究"(编号:skzd201221)

摘　　要：通过对1980—2011年中国农业资本存量的估算及农业劳动力变动的观察发现中国农业存在资本深化的现象。为了探究资本深化对农业经济的影响,本文对1980—2011年中国农业存量资本—产出比率作了计算,对存量资本—产出比率与农业经济增长率进行回归分析发现二者呈显著负相关关系,这可能是受农业资本形成的"滞后性"、资本投资效率和农工贸易条件差距的影响;通过构建解释农业投资效率的框架并对中国农业边际资本—产出比(ICOR)的测算分析农业投资效率变动的原因表明,农业资本深化是现代农业发展的特点,与农业补贴政策有互相促进的作用,这也意味着小农经济已经失去了存在的基础。Through estimate Chinese agricultural capital stock from 1980 to 2011,and the observation of changes in agricultural labor,we found the phenomenon of Chinese agricultural capital deepening. In order to explore the capital deepening impact on the agricultural economy,this paper has first calculated the stock of capital- output ratio of China's agriculture from 1980 to 2011,and then carried out a regression analysis on the relative between the stock of capital-output ratio and growth rate of agricultural economy,it was found that there was a significant negative correlation between them. This result may be subject to the lag of formation of agriculture capital,the efficiency of capital investment,and the gap of agro-industrial trade conditions. Finally,through estimate Chinese agricultural ICOR,it has analyzed the reasons for the changes of the efficiency of capital investment. This studies have shown that agricultural capital deepening is the characteristics of the development of modern agriculture and can promote each other's role about policy of agricultural subsidies,it also means that small-scale peasant economy has lost its foundation for existence.

关 键 词：农业经济 资本深化 资本-产出比 投资效率 小农经济 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F320