人口政策的经济效应分析——基于人口数量与质量替代效应的视角  

An Analysis of the Economic Effects of Population Policy: Based on the Perspective of the Substitution Effect of the Population Quantity and Quality

作　　者：瞿凌云[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行合肥中心支行调查统计处,安徽合肥230091

出　　处：《人口与经济》2013年第5期24-32,共9页Population & Economics

摘　　要：与我国生育率快速下降相伴而生的是人口老龄化问题,面对日益严峻的人口老龄化,社会上产生了众多对人口政策的质疑。本文从人口数量与质量替代效应视角出发,借助理论模型讨论在具有中国特色的发展模式下(包含家庭养儿防老的保障形式和人口政策对生育率的约束),人口老龄化对经济增长的影响。研究表明:低生育率尽管会加剧人口老龄化,但会促进人均教育投资和人力资本积累,经济发展方向最终由两个作用方向相反力量的强弱对比而决定。目前我国人口政策对于经济增长仍然是有贡献的。Rapid decline in fertility is accompanied by population aging, which brings a lot of criticizing on population policies. Based on the theoretical model this paper analyzed the impact of population aging on economic growth in the circumstance of Chinese social development （raising children for old age and constraints of population policies on fertility ） from the view point of substitution effect of quantity and quality. The result shows the aging of population is exacerbated by low fertility, but the investment in education per capita and human capital is promoted. These two opposite driving effect determine how the economic develops. Population policy is still effective for economic growth in China so far.

关 键 词：人口政策 人口老龄化 经济效应 数值模拟 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]