Evaluation of optimization operation models for cascaded hydropower reservoirs to utilize medium range forecasting inflow  

作　　者：XU Wei PENG Yong WANG BenDe 

机构地区：[1]School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology

出　　处：《Science China(Technological Sciences)》2013年第10期2540-2552,共13页中国科学（技术科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51379027,51109025);National Basic Research Program of China("973" project)(Grant No.2013CB036401);the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.DUT13JS06);Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(Grant No.20100041120004);the Hun River Cas-cade Hydropower Reservoirs Development Company,Ltd

摘　　要：This paper evaluates the performances of the models that incorporate forecasting inflow for cascaded hydropower reservoirs operation. These models are constructed separately on the concepts of explicit stochastic optimization （ESO） and implicit sto- chastic optimization （ISO） as well as parametefization-simulation-optimization （PSO）. Firstly, the aggregation-disaggregation method is implemented in ESO models to reduce the complexity of stochastic dynamic programming （SDP）. And the aggre- gate flow SDP （AF-SDP） and aggregation-disaggregation SDP （AD-SDP） are constructed respectively. Secondly, in ISO mod- el, decision tree is the well-known and widespread algorithm. The algorithm C 5.0 is selected to extract the if-then-else rules for reservoir operation. Thirdly, based on the PSO model, the hedging rule curves （HRCs） are pre-defined by fusing the storage and inflow as state variable. The parameters of the HRCs are determined by using the simulation-optimization model. Finally, China＇s Hun River cascade hydropower reservoirs system is taken as an example to illustrate the efficiency and reliability of the models. In addition, the values of quantitative precipitation forecasts of the global forecast system （10 days lead-time） are implemented to forecast the 10 days inflow.

关 键 词：cascaded hydropower reservoirs forecasting inflow stochastic dynamic programming decision tree hedging rule 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]