基于协整分析的池州市建设用地扩展驱动因子分析  

Co-integration Analysis on Driving Factors of Construction Land Expansion in Chizhou City,Anhui Province

作　　者：张乐勤[1] 张荷花 陈素平[3] 王文琴[4] 许信旺[1] 

机构地区：[1]池州学院资源环境与旅游系,安徽池州247000 [2]华阴市住建局房管所,陕西华阴714200 [3]池州学院经济贸易系,安徽池州247000 [4]池州学院政法管理系,安徽池州247000

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2013年第4期37-42,共6页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：安徽省教育厅重点研究课题"基于‘外部性理论’条件下小流域生态补偿机制与实施途径研究"(2010sk502zd);国家自然科学基金项目"不同围垦利用对淡水湖泊湿地土壤呼吸的影响及机理研究"(41071337)

摘　　要：针对安徽省池州市建设用地快速扩展的现状,依据2000—2011年时间序列数据,运用空间分析模型对建设用地扩展特征进行了动态分析,采用计量经济分析的协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、向量误差修正模型等方法,对建设用地扩展驱动因子进行了定量测度。结果表明:(1)2000—2011年池州市建设用地年平均扩展速率为3.49%,2000—2005年扩展速度为1.70%,2006—2010年扩展速度为4.59%;(2)经济增长、固定资产投资对建设用地扩展存在单向因果关系;(3)长期来看,经济增长、固定资产投资对建设用地扩展的弹性系数分别为-3.663 8和2.264 7,在短期为-0.312 3和0.328 7。表明增长经济总量,提高经济运行质量,控制固定资产投资规模是减缓建设用地扩展重要途径。With the time series data during the period of 2000--2011, dynamic analysis was used with spatial models on expansion characteristics of construction land in Chizhou City, Anhui Province. Co-integration test, Granger causality test and vector error correction model approach in econometric analysis were adopted to quantitatively measure the driving factors of built-up land expansion. The results showed that. （1） Between 2000 and 2011, annual average expansion speed of construction land was 3.49% in Chizhou City while it was 1. 700/oo and 4. 59% in 2000 2005 and 2006--2010 respectively; （2） Economic growth and fixed asset investment had an unidirectional causality to construction land expansion; （3） In a long term, the elastic coefficient of economic growth and fixed asset investment to construction land expansion was --3. 663 8 and 2. 264 7 respectively; in a short term, it was --0. 312 3 and 0. 328 7 respectively, which indicated that the important way to slow down the construction land expansion is to increase total economy, improve the quali- ty of economic operation and control the scale of fixed asset investment.

关 键 词：建设用地扩展 协整检验 GRANGER因果检验 向量误差修正模型 池州市 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]