计及失效事件和严重程度不确定性的设备电压暂降失效率评估  

Assessment of equipment invalidation due to voltage sags considering uncertainties of failure and severity

作　　者：杨达[1] 肖先勇[2] 汪颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学电气信息学院,四川成都610065 [2]四川大学智能电网四川省重点实验室,四川成都610065

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2013年第10期107-111,117,共6页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50877049);四川省应用基础研究项目(2008JY0043-2);四川省科技支撑计划资助项目(2010GZ0256)~~

摘　　要：综合考虑电压暂降影响下设备失效事件发生和后果严重程度的复杂不确定性,将设备失效样本分为由随机性、模糊性和交叉不确定性引起的失效样本,分别用随机熵、模糊熵和交叉熵度量刻画相应的不确定性,建立最大混合熵评估模型,并用近似规划法求解。在分别定量评估3类不确定性引起的设备失效率的基础上,按各自的权重进行设备失效率综合评估,评估结果表明,该方法能克服现有方法的过估计和欠估计问题。The complicated uncertainty of equipment failure due to voltage sag and its severity are comprehensively considered. The failure samples are classified into three categories：random failure,fuzzy failure and cross uncertain failure,and their uncertainties are measured respectively by random entropy,fuzzy entropy and cross entropy. A maximum hybrid entropy assessment model is established and solved by the approximate programming. The comprehensive assessment of equipment failure rate is based on the equipment failure rates obtained by the quantitative uncertainty assessment and the corresponding weights. The assessment results show that,the proposed approach avoids both over-estimation and under-estimation existing in current assessment methods.

关 键 词：设备 失效率 电压暂降 随机性 模糊性 交叉不确定性 最大混合熵模型 

分 类 号：TM714.2[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]