气候变化对澜沧江-湄公河上中游径流的影响研究  

Climate Change and Its Effects on Runoff in Upper and Middle Reaches of Lancang- Mekong River

作　　者：吴迪[1,2] 赵勇[1] 裴源生[1] 毕彦杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]中国灌溉排水发展中心,北京100054

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2013年第9期1569-1582,共14页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B03);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金项目(51021066)

摘　　要：将区域气候模式RegCM3与水循环模拟模型WACM进行单向耦合,对澜沧江-湄公河流域未来气候变化和流域上中游主要控制水文站径流响应进行了模拟和分析。区域气候预估表明,相对于现状(1980—2009年),A1B情景下未来(2010—2039年)流域年平均温度和降水均有增加趋势,分别增加了0.65℃和1.87%,但降水增加不明显;流域北部温度增幅比南部明显,而降水区域差异较大,变化较为复杂。径流模拟结果表明,未来气候变化情景下,清盛和琅勃拉邦站多年平均径流量与天然情景相比均有减少趋势,分别减少了1.23%和3.69%,但变化不明显;未来径流年际变化呈不显著的减少趋势,而温度变化对径流影响作用要强于降水;未来春季和夏季(3—6月)径流增减相对明显,局部区域有洪涝和水文干旱的风险,而其它月份径流变化不显著。Regional climate change and runoff response in the upper and middle reaches of the Lancang - Mekong River Basin were simulated by basin water cycle model WACM （ Water resources Allocation and Cycle Model） and regional climate model （RegCM3） coupled with one-way mode. The projected results of regional climate change show that the temperature and precipitation in fu- ture （2010 -2039） under SRES A1B scenario increases by 0. 65℃ and 1.87% respectively rela- tive to current status （1980 -2009）, while the precipitation increase is insignificant. The tempera- ture in northern part of the basin changes more obviously than that in the southern part. The precip- itation changes are relatively complicated in different regions. Furthermore, results of runoff simula- tion indicate that the runoff at Chiang Saen and Luang Prabang hydrologic stations under future cli- mate change scenario decreases by 1.23% and 3.69% respectively, and the variation is insignifi- cant. The changes of inter-annual runoff present a decreasing trend slightly, and the role of temper- ature on runoff variations is stronger than precipitation. The distribution of monthly runoff within a year is uneven in spring and summer （from March to June）, it may cause the floods and hydrologic droughts in local regions, however, the runoff variations are not obvious in the rest months.

关 键 词：气候变化 陆气耦合 径流模拟 区域气候模式（RegCM3） WACM模型 澜沧 江-湄公河上中游 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]