灰色模型GM(1,1)在细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾发病率定量宏观评估中的应用  

Application of GM (1,1) Model in Evaluating Macroscopic Quantitative Incidence of Bacillary and Amebic Dysentery

作　　者：姜泽慧[1] 张静[1] 刘合岭[2] 曹爽[3] 关鹏[3] 黄德生[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国医科大学 [2]中国医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,沈阳110001 [3]中国医科大学基础医学院数学教研室

出　　处：《寄生虫病与感染性疾病》2013年第3期113-116,共4页Parasitoses and Infectious Diseases

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073175)

摘　　要：目的探索灰色模型GM(1,1)在全国细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾发病率定量宏观评估中的合理性与应用条件。方法收集1990-2011年中国大陆地区细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾发病率。首先,利用1990-2007发病率建立灰色模型,然后对2008-2010发病率进行预测。结果灰色模型GM(1,1)基本适合细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾发病拟合与预测研究,C=0.399,p=0.882。结论 GM(1,1)模型本质上是指数模型,当传染病发病率数据服从指数模型时,利用GM(1,1)效果较好。当数据不服从指数模型时,GM(1,1)拟合结果不理想,此时应考虑采用其他方法。Objective To explore the feasibility of GM （1, 1 ） model in evaluating macroscopic quantitative incidence of bacillary and amebic dysentery. Methods The national incidence of bacillary and amebic dysen- tery from 1990 to 2007 were applied for establishing the model, which was further adopted for predicting the incidence from 2008 to 2010. Results The goodness - of - fit test indicated that the precision of GM （ 1, basically was qualified in fitting and predicating bacillary and amebic dysentery, with C = 0. 399, P 0. 882. Conclusion The model could simulate the that the exponential model fit the incidence data; incidence trend of the communicable diseases in the case otherwise, alternative method should be adopted.

关 键 词：传染病 灰色模型 指数回归 

分 类 号：R183.4[医药卫生—流行病学]