最优货币区不同标准对欧元区内在不稳定性的量化分析对比——基于指数化模型  

The Quantitative Analysis and Empirical Research on the Inherent Instability of the Optimal Currency Area——Based on the Exponential Model

作　　者：王龑[1] 杜蓓蓓[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学,新疆乌鲁木齐830026

出　　处：《上海金融》2013年第9期15-21,116,共7页Shanghai Finance

摘　　要：本文以最优货币区成员国宏观经济之间的差异性为出发点,以指数函数为基础,通过建立模型,对欧元区的大量统计数据进行处理,以量化分析的方法对欧元区的内在不稳定性进行研究,并通过纵向比较和横向比较,对蒙代尔、弗莱明、凯南的最优货币区建立标准进行了对比分析,认为欧债危机的爆发只是欧元区不稳定性引发问题的一种形式,得出了最优货币区危机爆发是周期性的以及可以通过减小成员国之间的差异性来预防危机的结论。The article takes the differences in macro-economies of member states of the optimal currency area as a starting point,establishes models on the basis of exponential function,processes a large number of statistical data in the euro zone,and studies the inherent instability of the euro zone by the method of quantitative analysis.Meanwhile,through longitudinal and horizontal comparison,the article compares and analyzes Mondale,Fleming and Kennan's optimal currency area criteria,argues that the European debt crisis is only a form of problems caused by the instability of the euro zone,and finally reaches the conclusions that the crisis of the optimal currency area is cyclical and could be prevented by reducing the differences among member states.

关 键 词：最优货币区 指数化模型 差异性 内在不稳定性 量化分析 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]