生产服务业比率时序稳定性研究：1996--2009年  

Research on the Stability of the Ratios of Producer Services： 1996-2009

作　　者：孙得将[1] 李江帆[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2013年第10期35-48,共14页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"加快发展我国生产性服务业研究"(11JZD023)的资助

摘　　要：在奈特经济框架下通过对生产服务业的均衡分析，逻辑上推导出在3～5年中期期限内生产服务业比率时序稳定的结论，并利用世界投入产出数据库（WIOD）中40个经济体1996～2009年的560份投入产出表追踪数据，采用方差分析和一阶差分均值对0的t检验方法进行经验研究。结果表明，服务业中间需求率、服务业增加值率、生产服务业对服务业增加值比率均在时序上稳定，据此可以为生产服务业聚类分析法与投入产出分析法的沟通提供一个方法论平台。This paper proves that the ratios of producer services are stable over sequential years by equilibrium analysis of the producer services in the Knightian economic framework. Based on 560 input-output tables from World Input-Output Database （WIOD） which cover the sequential data of 40 economies from 1996 to 2009, an empirical research is conducted by applying the quantitative techniques of analysis of variance of the original ratios and t-test of the means of the first-order differences against 0. The results show that the intermediate demand ratio and the value added ratio as well as the ratio of producer services to value-added of services product are stable over sequential years. Methodologically, the communication platform is provided between the approach of cluster analysis and the approach of input-output analysis in producer services research.

关 键 词：生产服务业 时序稳定性 投入产出 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济]