离岛免税政策对海南省旅游需求影响效应实证研究  

Assessing the Impacts of the Goods Tax Rebate Policy on Tourism Demand for Hainan Island,China

作　　者：颜麒[1,2] 吴晨光[3] 叶浩彬[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学人文学院,江苏南京210037 [2]香港理工大学酒店与旅游业管理学院 [3]中山大学管理学院,广东广州650118

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2013年第10期47-51,共5页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：南京林业大学留学归国人员科研启动基金资助(YJ-2012013)~~

摘　　要：离岛免税政策是海南省建设国际旅游岛战略的重要组成部分,也是中国旅游公共政策的重大创新。文章系统地研究了离岛免税政策对海南省旅游需求的拉动效应,并通过AMRA模型进行建模和分析。数据分析结果表明,离岛免税政策对海南省国内旅游收入具有显著的拉动作用。文章还探讨了研究结果的理论和实践意义,特别是海南离岛免税政策对调控当前中国出境旅游过高购物消费所具有的独到启示。Recently, the Chinese government, industry, and consumers have all suggested that a tourism taxation policy, together with tax cuts and exemptions, should be introduced to stimulate the economy. At the macro level, the extra revenues that can be generated for tourist destinations are the most important aspects of this debate. For example, for many developing nations who are dependent on tourism, a tourist taxation policy has been shown to contribute as much as half of all local tax revenues. Consequently, taxation, which is usually integral to the sovereign rights of the destination nation, can effectively compensate for the leakages of local revenue in terms of imported infrastructure and human resources. The island of Hainan is a popular tourist destination in southern China. In early 2009, Hainan was strategically designated by the Chinese central government as an International Tourism Island. This included the introduction of a number of innovative reform policies that are aimed to develop Hainan into a world-class destination by 2020. The policy that has aroused the most widespread public attention is the implementation of a tax rebate for goods purchased on Hainan, which was introduced in 2011. Given the significance of the tax rebate arrangements to Hainan, and the importance of the national tourism policy to China as a whole, research is required to investigate the impact of this tax rebate policy. This study intends to fulfill this research objective by exploring and modeling the major factors that are integral to the economic impact of the tax rebate policy on Hainan. We then evaluate the impact of the tax rebate policy on tourism demand for Hainan. An econometric model is used in this study to investigate the impact of the newly initiated goods tax rebate policy on tourism development on Hainan. In particular, we have integrated the Auto Regressive and Moving Average （ARMA） model into a time series approximation and analysis. The results indicate that the goods tax rebate policy has had a signifi

关 键 词：离岛免税 海南 旅游需求 中国出境旅游 ARMA 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]