国际资本流动与金融稳定性研究——基于中东欧和独联体国家的比较  

International Capital Flows and Financial Stability:Based on the Comparison of Central and Eastern European Counties and the CIS

作　　者：庄起善[1] 张广婷[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学世界经济研究所,上海200433 [2]复旦大学世界经济系,上海200433

出　　处：《复旦学报（社会科学版）》2013年第5期94-107,157-158,共14页Fudan Journal（Social Sciences）

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"中东欧和独联体国家金融银行业开放过程中的不稳定因素研究"(项目批准号:2009JJD790008)的一项研究成果;复旦大学重点学科创新人才培养计划"国际资本流动与金融稳定性研究"的资助

摘　　要：在全球金融危机的影响下,由国际资本流动引发的金融不稳定现象日益成为学术界关注的焦点。本文对中东欧和独联体18个转型国家1997—2011年间国际资本流动及其分解因素对金融稳定性的影响进行了研究。实证结果发现:(1)在转型国家中,国际资本流动具有很大的波动性,在金融危机期间这种波动性更大。(2)在经历了大规模国际资本流入后,中东欧和独联体国家都发生过国际资本流动逆转现象,尤其是在金融危机期间,这种逆转在中东欧国家比独联体国家更严重。(3)在国际资本流动分解因素中,国际债务发生逆转的可能性最高,其次是FDI,而证券投资的逆转不显著;中东欧国家发生逆转的国际资本仅为国际债务,而独联体国家则是国际债务和FDI。另外,东道国较高的金融深化水平、资本账户开放度以及充足的国际储备等因素有助于降低国际资本流动发生逆转的可能性,尤其是在金融危机期间。因此,在引进国际资本的同时,还应重视本国金融市场的建设和经济发展水平的提高。Under the influence of global financial crisis,financial instability caused by international capital flows increasingly becomes the focus of national theory and policy authorities.This paper aims to analyze the effect of international capital flows and its components on financial stability in 18 transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS,19972011.The empirical results show that:(1) In the transition countries,international capital flows have great volatility,especially during the financial crisis.(2) Reversal of international capital flows occurred in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS after they experienced large capital inflows,especially during the financial crisis,and the situation in Central and Eastern Europe is more serious than that in the CIS.(3) From the decomposition factors of international capital flows,the international debt has the highest possibility of reversal,followed by FDI.However,the reversal of the portfolio investment is not significant.The international debt only reversed in Central and Eastern European countries,compared to international debt and FDI in CIS.In addition,higher level of financial deepening,capital account openness and adequate international reserves help to reduce the possibility of the reversal of international capital flows,especially during the financial crisis.Therefore,the host county should pay attention to the construction of the financial markets and the level of economic development when introduce international capital.

关 键 词：国际资本流动 外国直接投资 国际债务 证券投资 金融稳定 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]