供应链产品需求量变权重组合预测方法研究  

Study on the Combined Forecasting Method of Supply Chain Product Demand Based on Changeable Weight

作　　者：张树山[1] 孙毅[1] 郭坤[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学商学院,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《东北师大学报（哲学社会科学版）》2013年第5期54-57,共4页Journal of Northeast Normal University(Philosophy and Social Science Edition)

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(12GN048);吉林大学科学前沿与交叉学科创新项目(45006048106)

摘　　要：提高市场需求预测的准确性是供应链系统应付不确定性,削弱"牛鞭效应"的重要途径。针对供应链产品市场需求量预测方法的不足,依据变权重组合预测技术,基于改进的GM(1,1)方法来确定组合预测模型的变权重权系数,给出了一种适合供应链系统产品市场需求量预测的变权重组合预测方法。最后以乳制品市场需求量预测为例,对该方法进行了应用验证,证明该方法可以提高预测准确性。It is an important way for a supply chain system to increase the accuracy of the market demand for coping with uncertainty and weakening ＂bullwhip effect＂. For the shortage of the supply chain product demand forecasting methods, based on the combination forecasting method of changeable weight, through the improvement of the existing forecasting methods,and used the improved GM （ 1, 1 ） method to determine the coefficients of changeable combination weight, it proposed an new method being used to forecast supply chain product demand based on changeable weight. Finally, as an example of application to dairy market demand forecast, it proved that the method can improve the accuracy of the demand forecasts.

关 键 词：供应链 产品需求 变权重 组合预测 

分 类 号：F252.2[经济管理—国民经济]