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作 者:白慧[1,2] 吴战平[1] 龙俐[1] 周涛[1]
机构地区:[1]贵州省气候中心,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵州贵阳550002
出 处:《云南大学学报(自然科学版)》2013年第5期661-668,共8页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)
基 金:贵州省科学技术厅社会发展攻关项目(黔科合SY字[2011]3091);贵州省科学技术厅社会发展攻关项目(黔科合计Z字[2009]74006)
摘 要:从气象干旱出发,考虑前期干旱指数衰减累积效应,在前期降水指数(API)和标准化前期降水指数(SAPI)的基础上,结合时间序列标准化统计学方法,对SAPI算法进行了简化,定义为SAPI*.通过对SAPI*在贵州省的适用性分析,得到以下结论:SAPI*有效刻画出贵州省2009—2010跨年干旱和2011年的夏秋连旱过程的干旱累积效应,客观反映干旱的发生、发展和结束过程,没有出现"不合理旱情加剧"的问题;SAPI*旱日频率在各季节的主要发生时段是夏季和春季,且贵州省降水较少的季节或者地区,较易发生一般性干旱,而在贵州省降水较多的季节或者地区较易发生重型干旱.SAPI*对无雨日数和降水量的敏感性分析,发现无雨日较少、降水较稳定开阳站SAPI*对旱日的敏感较高、对降水的敏感性也较高,即旱情发展较快、缓解也较快,所以一般性干旱出现的概率较大;相反在无雨日较多、降水较集中的兴义站对旱日的敏感性较低、对降水的敏感性也较低,即旱情发展略慢、旱情缓解也较慢,所以重性干旱出现的概率较大.According to the definition of meteorological drought, considering exponential decay cumulative effect of drought, a daily meteorological drought indicator( SAPI * ) is presented based on the antecedent precipi- tation index (API) and the standardized antecedent precipitation index (SAPI), and combined with the statistical methods of standardized time series. By analysising the applicability of SAPI * in Guizhou, the results are as fol- lows:SAPI * is able to effectively describe the cumulative effect of drought during the 2009 to 2010 and 2011 in Guizhou, and to objectively reflect the occurrence, development and end of drought processes. Overcoming the un- reasonable drought aggravation problem of the equal weight accumulation due to the antecedent precipitation mov- ing out of the calculation window. The distribution characteristics of drought frequencies is able to describe the main period of time, which conclude the summer and spring. The more general drought is liable to appear in the rainless times and regions and the heavier and the heaviest drought is liable to appear in the rainy times and re- gions in Guizhou. Sensitivity analysis shows that the sensitivity of SAPI * for rainless days is higher, and for the a- mount of precipitation is also higher in Kaiyang station, where the rainless days is less and the precipitation is steadier, due to the development of drought is faster and the relief of drought is also faster, that is the reason for general drought probability is higher. Conversely, the sensitivity of SAPI * for rainless days is lower, and for the a- mount of precipitation is also lower in concentrated,due to the development son for heavier and the heaviest Xingyi station, where the rainless days is more and the precipitation is more of drought is slower and the relief of drought is also slower, that is the rea- drought probability is higher.
分 类 号:P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
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