产业结构演进的需求动因分析——基于非竞争投入产出模型的研究  

The Analysis of Demand Motive for the Evolution of Industrial Structure:Study Based on Non-competitive Input-output Model

作　　者：王宇[1,2] 干春晖[1] 汪伟[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院,上海200433 [2]内蒙古大学经济管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010021 [3]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2013年第10期60-75,共16页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(10zd&011);国家社科基金重点项目(13AJL004);上海市"曙光跟踪"项目(10GG18);内蒙古自然科学基金(2012MS1006);上海财经大学研究生创新基金(CXJJ-2011-369)资助

摘　　要：理解现阶段我国产业结构演进的机理和变换的动因对于加快转变经济发展方式、顺利实现产业升级具有极其重要的意义。文章利用非竞争投入产出模型,重点从最终需求视角深入分析了开放经济条件下1992-2010年中国产业结构演进的趋势及其背后动因。研究发现,逐步扩大城镇、农村居民消费对工业结构的改善发挥着重要作用,有利于调节重工业与轻工业的比例。文章根据部门的主要需求成因把产业分成"居民消费驱动型"、"资本驱动型"、"出口驱动型"以及"政府支出驱动型"四类,并发现"居民消费驱动型"和"出口驱动型"产业发展有利于结构升级。1992-2007年,需求结构与产出结构偏离度呈现增加势头,而到2010年形势好转,第三产业占比增加,偏离度开始缩小,这与居民消费在一定程度上提振有关。发挥消费需求的产业升级导向作用,应当成为未来政策的重点。The understanding of the mechanism of the evolution of in- dustrial structure and the motive for the changes at the present stage is of great significance to the acceleration of the transformation of economic de- velopment patterns and the smooth realization of industrial up-grading in China.This paper employs a non-competitive input-output model to deep an- alyze the trend for the evolution of industrial structure in China and behind motive from 1992 to 2010 under the condition of opening up the economy from a final demand perspective. The results show that the gradual expan- sion of urban and rural consumption has played an important role in the im- provement of industrial structure and is beneficial to the adjustment to the ratio of heavy industry to light industry. According to the main demand in- duced factors of sectors,industries have been divided into consumer-driven, capital-driven, export-driven and govement-spending-driven ones, and con- sumer-driven and export-driven industries are found to be conducive to structure upgrading. From 1992 to 2007 the deviation from demand structure to output structure gradually expanded~ after 2010 the situation improves, and the percentage of the tertiary industry increases and the deviation from demand structure to output structure begins to shrink, which is related to residential consumption boom to a certain extent. The guide role of consumption demand in industrial up-grading should be the focus of future policy.

关 键 词：最终需求 产业结构演进 可比价非竞争型投入产出表 

分 类 号：F421[经济管理—产业经济]