内蒙古沙尘天气少发季节沙尘天气预报技术分析  

A Synoptic Analysis on Forecasting of Sand-Dust Storm in November over Inner Mongolia

作　　者：李一平 德勒格日玛[1,2] 斯琴 吴学宏 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区气象台,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2013年第5期1483-1491,共9页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40965005;41365003)资助

摘　　要：本文对2010年11月沙尘天气少发季节出现在内蒙古自治区西部地区但漏报的一次沙尘天气过程进行了详细的分析,从实际预报的角度出发,利用实际预报工作中可以用到的高空、地面、数值预报产品等相关资料,从产生沙尘天气的有利条件、大尺度环流形势演变及可能造成的其他灾害性天气、沙尘气候概率等角度较全面剖析了此次沙尘天气过程的漏报。分析得出:(1)沙尘天气不是单一出现的,都会伴随大风天气,但沙尘和大风的落区不尽相同,往往先出现大风再有沙尘天气出现,强沙尘暴区都伴有大风天气;(2)沙尘天气出现前会出现明显升温,无有效降水,沙尘过后有时伴有寒潮、雨雪天气;(3)大气的强斜压不稳定是产生沙尘大风的主要因素;(4)锋前上升运动较强,可达对流层中上层(400hPa以上);(5)沙尘出现时段整层对应正涡度区;(6)在沙尘暴过程中,午后产生深厚混合层的区域容易产生高空动量下传并形成地面大风。通过对漏报原因的分析提醒广大预报员在今后的预报工作中要增强多种灾害天气同时出现的预报敏感性,一定要在关注重点灾害的同时,避免对沙尘天气少发期沙尘天气漏报的现象。A detailed analysis on a missing-reported sand-dust process in western Inner Mongolia during No- vember of 2010 is made in this paper. Based on sounding data, surface observations and numerical forecast products which are available in weather prediction, many aspects concerning this sand-dust process are ana- lyzed from a practical forecast perspective, including weather conditions for sand-dust process, the evolution of large scale circulation which may cause other hazard weather, and climate probability of sand-dust process. The results showed that： （1） Sand-dust process always is accompanied by windy weather, but the drop zone of sand-dust weather and windy weather are different. The wind weather always occurs before the sand-dust weather. （2）There will be obvious warming process before the sand-dust weather, and the cold wave or precipitation sometimes occur after the sand-dust weather. （3） Strong atmospheric baroclinic insta- bility is the main reason of the sand-dust weather and strong wind. （4） The prefrontal ascending motion is strong and could reach the middle-high level of troposphere （higher than 400 hPa）. （5） The whole level vor- ticity zone is positive during the sand-dust process. （6） During the sand-dust process, the development of deep mixed layer in the afternoon is contributed to the downward transportation of upper air momentum and strong wind. Finally, the analysis on this missing-reported sand-dust process will remind forecasters to in- crease forecasting sensitivity to multi-hazard weathers which appear simultaneously and to avoid the missing- report of hazards whose frequency is less.

关 键 词：沙尘天气 少发期 漏报 关键因素 敏感性 

分 类 号：P425.55[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]