基于Monte-Carlo模拟的土壤环境重金属污染评价法与实例研究  

Probabilistic Environmental Quality Assessment Method and Case Study of Soil Heavy Metals Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

作　　者：李飞[1,2] 黄瑾辉[1,2] 曾光明[1,2] 袁兴中[1,2] 梁婕[1,2] 唐晓娇[1,2] 白兵[1,2] 王晓钰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学环境科学与工程学院,湖南长沙410082 [2]湖南大学环境生物与控制教育部重点实验室,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《湖南大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第9期103-108,共6页Journal of Hunan University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51178172;50978088;51039001;51009063)

摘　　要：综合分析了现行确定性土壤环境质量评价中的不足,将Monte-Carlo模拟引入地累积指数模型中,并进一步通过数据的挖掘和对土壤中各重金属的生态风险差异的考量,构建了基于不确定性理论的土壤环境质量评价法.将所建方法应用于实例区域,分别构建重金属的实测含量参数和其对应背景值参数的概率分布模型,设定模拟中最大实验量为1 000,置信区间为95%,抽样方法为拉丁超立方(Latin hypercube sampling),得到基于不确定性理论的土壤环境质量评价结果:评价区域土壤中各重金属的污染排序为Cd>Ni>Zn>Cu>Cr,其中,Cd隶属于严重污染等级的概率高达98.1%;Ni和Zn有着明显的空间分布差异,并且属于严重污染的概率也分别达84.5%和87%;Cr和Cu的污染等级相对较低.而后,将所得结果与现行的确定性模型评价结果进行了对比分析,结果表明:所建基于不确定性的评价模型具有更好的评级分辨力,并可更全面、真实地表征该区域土壤重金属的污染特征和概率风险水平.A probabilistic environmental quality assessment method of soil heavy metals based on Monte-Carlo simulation and index of geoaccumlation was developed by considering the data screening and weighting system of different heavy metals＂ biology-toxicity. Then, a case of contaminated farmland soil was put forward to test and verify the feasibility of the proposed method. Then, by building the factor probability distribution models of the sample content parameters and corresponding background value pa- rameters, the probabilistic quality assessment method was applied with the preferences of maximum num- ber of trials 1000, confidence level 95% and Latin hypercube sampling method. The results showed thatthe pollution degrees of these heavy metals were in the order Cd〉Ni〉Zn〉Cu〉Cr. The pollution degree of Cd belonged to the probability of serious pollution level as high as 98.1%. Ni and Zn were in spatial dis- tribution of a clear difference, and belonged to the probability of serious pollution level at 84.5% and 87% respectively. Cu and Cr were relatively low in pollution level. At last, through a comparative analysis, the results showed that the proposed method owned a higher resolving property, and could express their corre- sponding probabilistic risk levels, which provided a basic theory to scientific decision-making.

关 键 词：不确定性分析 Monte—Carlo模拟 土壤 重金属 

分 类 号：X820.2[环境科学与工程—环境工程]