外部供给、地理距离与中国粮食市场整合研究  

External Supply,Geographical Distance and Grain Market Integration in China

作　　者：黄新飞[1] 欧阳艳艳[1] 汪璐[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际商学院 [2]中国银行深圳市分行

出　　处：《统计研究》2013年第9期50-56,共7页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目"区域一体化;生产率增长与地区经济协调发展研究"(71003111);国家社会科学基金青年项目"中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出与区域竞争力"(11CJL042);高校基本科研业务费青年教师培育项目"国际贸易;生产率增长与地区经济协调发展研究"(10pywk11)的资助

摘　　要：本文在一价定律框架内构建了一个反映外部供给冲击和地理距离影响的综合价格指数,将本地因素从价格变化的总体影响因素区分开来,利用1995-2009年南方8省区和北方10省区面板数据测算中国粮食市场的整合程度。结果表明:控制了气候条件和丰收质量等当地生产条件后,外部综合价格指数上升10%,南方水稻和北方小麦价格平均上升10.31%和9.85%,中国省区粮食市场整合程度较高。本文采用格点搜索法确定水稻和小麦市场的地理距离阈值分别为1011公里和2200公里,定量测算地理距离对粮食市场整合程度的影响。当地水稻76%和小麦市场85%的价格变化来源于距离相对较近省份综合价格的变化,距离相近的省份间市场整合程度更高。We built a composite price index reflecting the external supply shocks and geographic distance influence, and distinguished local from aggregate sources of price variation. With panel data of eight provinces in the south of China and another ten northern provinces from 1995 to 2009, the article estimates the degree of grain market integration in China. The conclusion is that the degree of Chinese grain market integration was quite high controlling the local impact factors such as weather conditions and harvest qualities, the external composite price index increased 10%, the average price of southern rice and northern wheat increased by 10.31% and 9. 85% respectively. Using the method of grid search, we got the threshold values of geographical distance of local rice and wheat market, which were 1011km and 2200km, then empirical analysis of the degree of influence of Geographic distance on food＇ s market integration. 76% and 85% change of local market price of rice and wheat resulted from composite price changes in relatively close provinces, and the shorter distance provinces had, the higher degree of market integration was.

关 键 词：外部综合价格指数 地理距离阈值 一价定律 格点搜索法 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]