天水地区强降水过程风险评估方法研究  

Risk Assessment Research of Strong Precipitation Prose in Tianshui Area

作　　者：胡利平[1,2] 贾效忠 杭波 尤志刚[2] 姚新琪 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃天水741018 [3]麦积区气象局,甘肃麦积741020 [4]张家川气象局,甘肃张家川741500

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2013年第26期178-183,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：甘肃省气象局气象科研项目"天水农业气象灾害风险评估技术及其预警系统"(2012-13)

摘　　要：利用天水地区1965—2009年45年间的逐日降水资料,确定分析明显大雨、暴雨过程;建立反映天水明显大雨、暴雨过程的3项单项指标及综合评估指数,并对其风险评估等级进行划分;检验大雨、暴雨综合评估指数序列的正态性,结果大雨符合正态分布、暴雨经过变换也符合正态分布,从而确定了明显大雨、暴雨过程风险重现期评估指标。最后利用等级划分及重现期评估指标对2010—2011年的明显大雨、暴雨过程进行评估。结果表明,该方法能及时、有效、科学的对天水地区大雨、暴雨过程进行量化评估,为防灾减灾提供气象支撑,对提高决策气象服务的及时性、有效性,最大限度的满足气象为农服务意义重大。Used the daily precipitation data in 45 years from 1965 to 2009, deterministic analyzed the process of heavy rain and torrential rain. Established 3 individual index and comprehensive assessment indexes that could reflected the process of heavy rain and torrential rain, and also divided the risk assessment rank. Tested the normality of the sequences of comprehensive assessment indexes about the heavy rain and torrential rain, the result showed that the heavy rain fitted the normal distribution, torrential rain fitted the normal distribution after vary, thereby determined the assessment indexes in return period of the heavy rain and torrential rain. At last, we assessed the process of heavy rain and torrential rain from 2010 to 2012 by the assessment rank and the return period assessment indexes. The result showed that, this research quantitative assessed the process of heavy rain and torrential rain in Tianshui Area timely effectively and scientific, provided support to pre prevention and reduction department, had a great meaning for increase the effectiveness and promptness of weather service

关 键 词：明显大、暴雨过程 评估方法 天水地区 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]