中国OFDI的出口效应:抑制还是促进?——基于21国面板数据的实证研究  

Influence of Chinese OFDI on Exports:Suppressing or Promoting?——Empirical Research Based on Cross-Country Panel Data and Threshold Model

作　　者：林志帆[1] 董佺[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《产经评论》2013年第5期152-160,共9页Industrial Economic Review

摘　　要：近10年来中国从一个引资大国逐渐发展为对外投资大国。理论上,对外直接投资既可能抑制出口也可能促进出口。本文在引力模型的框架下利用2003年-2011年中国21个贸易投资对象国的面板数据,实证分析了中国对外直接投资的出口效应。结果显示,中国对外直接投资对出口贸易有一定的促进作用,但总体不显著。将样本分为发达国家与发展中国家后发现:对外直接投资轻微抑制了向发达国家的出口贸易,但显著地促进了对发展中国家的出口贸易。最后对这一差异作出理论解释。Chinese OFDI has been growing rapidly in the past ten years so its influence on exports is well worth our attention. Theoretical reasoning suggests that OFDI can either suppress or promote exports. This paper explores the influence of Chinese OFDI on exports using panel data of 21 countries from 2003 to 2011 within the framework of gravity model. Random effect intercept varying model and maximum likelihood model suggest that： Generally speaking, Chinese OFDI has some positive influence on exports but this effect is not statis- tically significant. After dividing the sample into developed countries and developing countries it＇s revealed that Chinese OFDI mildly suppress exports to developed countries but can significantly promote exports to developing countries. Final, this paper concludes with some economic explanations to this difference.

关 键 词：对外直接投资 出口促进 出口抑制 发达国家 发展中国家 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]