人口年龄结构、养老保险制度与最优储蓄率  

The Age Composition of Population,the Endowment Insurance System and Optimal Savings Ratio in China

作　　者：袁志刚[1] 宋铮[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学系和复旦大学就业与社会保障研究中心,200433

出　　处：《经济研究》2000年第11期24-32,共9页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：复旦大学重点规划项目;上海市劳动和社会保障局的资助

摘　　要：近年来 ,中国城镇居民的消费倾向出现了大幅度的下降。为了解释这个令人困惑的现象 ,我们首先构建了一个可以把握中国养老保险制度之基本特征的叠代模型。我们进而发现 ,人口老龄化一般说来会激励居民增加储蓄。由于人口老龄化是计划生育政策的自然结果 ,它很可能是造成中国城镇居民储蓄倾向上升的一个重要因素 ,本文中的数值模拟结果为上述判断提供了一些依据。最后 ,我们对中国的黄金律问题进行了讨论。基于多种原因 ,我们认为中国目前的储蓄率并不是社会最优储蓄率的体现 ,降低储蓄率很可能成为一个帕累托改进。In recent years,Chinese urban and township households' saving ratio has amounted to a very high level.In order to explain the puzzle,we first establish a simple overlapping generation model that can obtain the main characteristics of endowment insurance system in China.Then we find that aging of population will generally stimulate people to save more.Because aging of population is the natural result of family plan,it may be one of the most important factors which cause the high savings ratio in Chinese urban and township households and our quantitative results support the above judgement.Finally,we discuss the problem of golden rule in China.Due to many reasons,we believe that the current private optimal savings ratio in China is not equal to social optimal savings ratio and reduce savings ratio could be a Pareto improving.

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 养老保险制度 最优储蓄率 中国 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险] F126.1