环渤海地区城市化对夏季极端暖夜的影响  

Effects of urbanization in the Surrounding Bohai area on extreme summer warmest night temperatures

作　　者：李庆祥[1] 黄嘉佑[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [2]北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系,北京100871

出　　处：《气象学报》2013年第4期668-676,共9页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40605021);国家公益性行业专项(GYHY201206012);十二五国家科技支撑项目(2012BAC22B00);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201224)

摘　　要：城市化对人类生活息息相关的一些指标(如夏季极端暖夜等)的影响研究尚少。取环渤海地区气象观测站的夏季(6-8月)逐日最低气温资料(1958-2009年),使用广义极值(GEV)分布拟合夏季极端暖夜气温分布,并对拟合函数的3个分布特征参数的年际变化进行分析,根据特征参数变化特征进行城市化对极端暖夜的影响程度的分离。研究结果表明,环渤海地区,在极端暖夜气温分布的3个参数的年际变化中,以位置参数的代表性最好。在城市快速发展时期,城市偏高气温出现的可能性大,但极端气温变化幅度也较大。城市化对环渤海不同类型城市夏季极端暖夜气温的贡献均为上升作用,增温速度最大约为0.3℃/(10 a)。Many studies have been focused primarily on the impacts of urbanization on regional mean temperatures changes but very little on the changes in extreme temperatures.This paper examined the urbanization impact on extreme summer warmest night temperatures based on the 33 stations in the Surrounding tiohai area during 1958-2009.We then used the Ucneralized Extreme Value CUEV） distribution to analyze the distribution of extreme warmest night temperatures and the long term variadons of the three distributional characteristics parameters.（hhc results suggest that among the three extreme minimum temperature distribution parameters, the position parameter is the most representative in terms of its long term change.A new classification method based on the intercommunity（factors analysis method） of the temperature change is developed to detect the urbanization effect on summer extreme warmest night temperatures in different cities.During the period of rapid urbanization （after 1980）,the magnitude of variations of the three distribution parameters for the urban station group is larger than that for the reference station group,indicating a higher chance of occurrence of warmer weather and a larger fluctuation of temperatures.Among different types of cities, the three parameters of the extreme warmest night temperature distribution of the urban station group arc,without exception,higher than those of the reference station group.The urbanization of the different types of cities all show an urban heat island effect,with an average effect about 0.3℃/（10 a） in the Surrounding Bohai area.

关 键 词：极端气候事件 夏季极端暖夜 广义极值分布 城市化影响 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]