基于突变级数的突发性水污染事故预警研究  

Accident Water Pollution Warning Based on Catastrophe Series

作　　者：李晓非[1] 葛新权[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京100192

出　　处：《灾害学》2013年第4期29-33,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：北京市属高等学校科技创新平台"北京世界城市循环经济体系(产业)协同创新中心";北京知识管理研究基地项目

摘　　要：随着突发性水污染事故的频繁发生,突发性水污染事故的预警已经成为环境治理和公共安全领域研究的热点问题。目前我国关于突发性水污染事故的预警研究主要集中在突发性水污染事故预警指标和评价建立上,尚缺乏有效的预警方法。针对突发性水污染事故影响的复杂性,基于突变理论的思想,建立了一种基于突变级数的突发性水污染事故预警方法,并从自然环境和公共安全两个方面对突发性水污染事故的影响进行了评价。该方法能够通过定量指标与定性指标有效地评价突发性水污染事故对自然环境和社会环境的影响。With frequent water pollution accidents, the accident water pollution warning has become a hot issue in environmental management and public security. Currently, the study focuses on index and evaluation of accident water pollution warning in China, but still lacks effective warning methods. Aiming at complicated accident water pollution, an accident water pollution warning method based on catastrophe series is established according to the mutation theory, and the impact of accident water pollution has been evaluated in natural environment and public security. This method can evaluate effectively the impact of accident water pollution on natural and social environment by the efficient combination of quantitative and qualitative indexes.

关 键 词：突变级数 水污染 预警 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]