中国税收政策的供给效应:理论机制与实证检验  

Supply Effect of Chinese Revenue Policy: Theoretical Mechanism and Demonstration Check

作　　者：文学[1] 李心愉[2] 

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学政法学院,北京100089 [2]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《求是学刊》2013年第5期62-70,共9页Seeking Truth

摘　　要：基于"相对价格"理论建立了一个理论模型,从供给角度解释税收政策对总产出的短期传导机制。利用1978—2010年中国宏观经济数据,通过VAR模型实证性地考察了税收政策的长短期供给效应,并将其与税收政策的需求效应进行比较。结果发现,改革开放初期,税收政策的需求效应占主导地位,但随着市场经济体制的不断完善,税收政策的供给效应逐渐凸显出来,最终超过了需求效应。这一结论在某种程度上可解释中国经济为何在相当长的一段时间里能保持"高增长、低通胀"的发展态势。Based on＂relative price＂,a new theoretical pattern is established to interpret the influence of short term transmitting mechanism of revenue policy on total output.According to China macro economic statistics during 1978-2010 and VAR model,the article examines the short and long term supply effect of revenue policy and compares it with the demand effect.Result shows that in the early days of reform and opening up,the demand effect of revenue policy is dominant.Along with the perfection of market economic system,the supply effect of revenue policy becomes protruded,exceeding demand effect.This conclusion can in a sense explain why Chinese economics can keep a＂high growth and low inflation＂tendency in a relatively long period.

关 键 词：税收政策 供给效应 需求效应 价格水平 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F812.42