气候变化与人类活动对滦河流域径流变化响应  

Runoff Changes in Response to Climate Change and Human Activities Scenarios of Luanhe River Basin

作　　者：刘晨[1] 董增川[1] 方庆[1] 山成菊[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2013年第9期12-15,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：水利部公益性基金资助项目(201101017)

摘　　要：针对气候变化和人类活动对流域水循环与水平衡的影响,以滦河流域为研究对象,基于SWAT模型,通过输入实测降雨、温度等气候资料及还原后的降雨资料,建立各时期气候变化及人类活动影响下的径流响应模型。结果表明,不同时期径流量呈现不同程度的减少,而引起径流减少的主要因素是人类活动的影响,气候变化的贡献率为20%~40%。The climate change and human activities can influence on basin hydrologic cycle and water balance. Taking Luanhe river basin for an example, based on the SWAT model. By inputing the measured climate data and the restored data, we establish the runoff response model considering the impact of climate change and human activities in different pe- riods. The results show that the runoff appears downward trend in different periods and the main influencing factor is the impact of human activities while the contribution rate of climate change is 20%-40%.

关 键 词：滦河流域 径流 SWAT 驱动力 气候变化 人类活动 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]