厦门进出口贸易与港口物流关系的实证研究——基于协整理论与误差修正模型  

Empirical Study on Relationship between Foreign Trade and Port Logistics:Based on Co-integration Theory and Error Correction Model

作　　者：杨月锋[1] 徐学荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学,福建福州350002

出　　处：《经济问题》2013年第9期125-128,共4页On Economic Problems

基　　金：福建省社会科学规划项目"以福建为核心构建海西对台物流通道的战略研究"(2012C014)

摘　　要：基于厦门1983～2011的年度统计数据,借助EViews6.0计量软件,对厦门外贸进出口总额和厦门港货物吞吐量时间序列进行协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验并建立误差修正模型,得到进出口贸易和港口物流之间的长期稳定的协整关系和短期变化关系,并提出发展港口物流,促进进出口贸易发展的相关建议。Based on the statistical data from the year 1983 to 2011 of Xiamen, with the aid of EViews6.0, this paper empirically analyzed the relationship between total volume of imports and exports and Cargo throughput of Xiamen port by using co - integration theory, Granger causality test and error correction model. It reached the con- clusion that there are long -term stability relationship and short -term changing relationship between foreign trade and port logistics of Xiamen, and put forward some suggestions on the development of port logistics and foreign trade of Xiamen.

关 键 词：进出口贸易 港口 物流 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]