中国货币政策适宜转向通货膨胀目标制——基于中央银行预期管理的视角  

Suitability of China's Monetary Policy Transfer to Inflation Goal System:From the Perspective of PBC's Expectancy Management

作　　者：程均丽[1] 刘枭[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国金融研究中心 [2]西南财经大学继续(网络)教育学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2013年第9期11-19,共9页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(09BJL015);西南财经大学2011年度校管课题(重点类2011XG135);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(13JJD790023);西南财经大学校级科研基金;西南财经大学"中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"(JBK120508)资助

摘　　要：简单的最优货币政策是促使通货膨胀与产出二者之间达到"神奇巧合"的货币政策。本文立足于最优货币政策共识和预期的异质性,全面分析了中央银行预期管理。通货膨胀预期形成中的问题主要是信息问题,透明度与交流是预期管理的关键货币政策工具,着重于信息提供和中央银行的意图表达,能够盯住更多的目标。传统的货币政策工具主要是依靠中央银行的政策行为作用于价格稳定目标,比较而言,通货膨胀目标制能够形成预期管理的内生机制。本文建议,当下中国在经济疲弱、价格剧烈动荡之际,应率先推出"准通货膨胀目标制",管理经济下行风险,从而推动宏观经济的健康发展。The simple optimal monetary policy can promote the perfect coincidence between inflation and output. This paper analyzes PBC＇S expectancy management in terms of the consensus of optimal monetary policy and heterogeneity of expectancy. The problems of inflation expectancy are mainly information prob- lem. Transparency and communication are key monetary policy tools in expectancy management. Focusing on information providing and PBC＇s intension expression will hinge on more targets. Traditional monetary policy tools mainly relies on impacts of PBC＇s policy action on price stability goals. Inflation expansion goals will form endogenous mechanism of expectancy management. This paper then proposes that in the situation of sluggish China＇s economy and significant price volatility, quasi - inflation expansion goal system must be ini- tiated to manage the risks of economic slowdown and promote the healthy development of macro- economy.

关 键 词：货币政策 通货膨胀 预期管理 目标制 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]