商业周期与货币调控  

Business Cycle and Currency Regulation and Control

作　　者：张五常[1] 

机构地区：[1]香港大学,香港999077

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2013年第9期4-7,共4页China Business and Market

摘　　要：在以工商业为主的经济中,商业周期中的经济波动在时间上是没有规律的,这种上下波动大多是人为政策的结果。经济萧条的必要前提是信贷膨胀,而经济盛衰往往与货币无关。调控经济有三种方法,一是调整权利界定结构,即调整竞争的约束;二是财政政策,但政府投资存在着挤出效应和浪费现象;三是货币政策,即调整货币量和利息率。电子科技的发展、国际化的银行业务和国际强势货币的存在是货币数量理论失灵的主要原因。In the economy taking industry and commerce as the core, economic fluctuations in the business cycle is temporally erratic; and these fluctuations are always the result of artificial policies. The necessary precondition of economic depression is credit inflation; and there are no any relations between currency and economic rise and fall. There are three ways of economic control： the first is to adjust power definition structure, i.e. adjusting the bounding condition of competition; the second is the fiscal policy under the condition of crowding-out effect and waste in government investment; and the third is the monetary policy, i.e. adjusting the amount of money and interest rate. The development of electronic technology, the internationalized banking industry and the existence of international strong currency are the main causes for the failure of quantity theory of money.

关 键 词：商业周期 货币数量理论 信贷膨胀 经济调控 无锚货币 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]